Mexico 2025: Economic, social and political situation

Overview

Mexico is in a challenging phase in 2025, characterized by economic stagnation, persistent social problems and significant political changes. Under the new President Claudia Sheinbaum, the first woman to hold this office, the country is struggling with a number of structural challenges.

Economic situation

Growth forecasts and recession risk

The Mexican economy faces considerable difficulties in 2025. Forecasts predict a contraction of -0.3% to +0.5% for the current year^1^3. This represents a significant deterioration compared to the growth of 1.5% in 2024^1. A moderate recovery from 1.1% to 1.8% is not expected until 2026^2^4.

Dependence on the USA and trade tensions

One central problem remains Mexico's extreme dependence on the US market, where 80% of Mexican exports go^1. This dependency makes the country particularly vulnerable to the Trump administration's tariff policy. The imposition of 25% tariffs on Mexican goods, even if they were later partially suspended, shows the vulnerability of the Mexican economy^6.

Positive aspects despite challenges

Despite the difficult situation, Mexico 2024 Record foreign direct investment of 36.8 billion US dollars^1. The country continues to benefit from the nearshoring trend and remains the USA's most important trading partner^1.

Social situation

Poverty and inequality

The social situation shows mixed developments. On the positive side, between 2018 and 2024 9.5 million people have been lifted out of poverty^10. Nevertheless, there are still 36.3% of the population (46.8 million people) in multidimensional poverty^11. It is particularly worrying that 7% of the population (9.1 million people) live in extreme poverty^12.

Inequality and structural problems

Income distribution remains extremely unequal with a Gini coefficient of 0.45^13. Particularly affected are the indigenous peoples, over two thirds of whom live in poverty^11. The regional differences are considerable: the rich north and the center contrast strongly with the underdeveloped south^11.

Violence and the human rights crisis

Mexico is experiencing an unprecedented Violence and human rights crisis with over 115,000 people missing^15. The Murder rate is 24.9 per 100,000 inhabitants^17and 2024 were 829 feminicides registered - an increase of 93.7% compared to 2015^18. Between 70 and 100 people are murdered or abducted every day^19.

Political situation

President Sheinbaum and concentration of power

Claudia Sheinbaum has governed with an overwhelming two-thirds majority in Congress since October 2024^20which enables constitutional amendments. They enjoys high approval ratings of around 80%^21 and is largely continuing the policy of its predecessor López Obrador^20.

Judicial reform and institutional changes

One of the most controversial measures is the comprehensive judicial reform that provides for all judges to be directly elected by the people^15^25. This reform is seen by critics as a threat to judicial independence and the separation of powers^26. In addition, autonomous supervisory bodies were abolished or weakened^27.

Corruption and transparency

Mexico has achieved the worst score in its history in the Corruption Perceptions Index 2024: 140th place out of 180 countries with only 26 out of 100 points^28. This makes Mexico the most corrupt country in the OECD^28. The USA is exerting pressure on Mexico, Prosecute politicians with links to drug cartels^30.

The most pressing challenges

Critical priorities

1. Violence and organized crime: The country is fighting against drug cartels that control large areas and kill dozens of people every day^18^31.
2. Corruption and the rule of lawAs the most corrupt OECD country with weakened institutions, the credibility of the state is at stake^28.
3. Poverty and inequality: Despite progress, over 46 million people still live in poverty^12.
4. Disappeared persons: Over 115,000 missing persons represent a humanitarian crisis^32.

High priorities

5. Economic stagnation: The looming recession threatens jobs and prosperity^1^3.
6. US dependencyExtreme trade dependency makes the country vulnerable to protectionist measures^1^34.
7. Trade tensions: Relations with the Trump administration remain tense, despite diplomatic successes^35^34.

Conclusion

Mexico faces a complex set of challenges in 2025, including both structural and acute problems. While President Sheinbaum has strong political majorities that could enable reforms, the country's core problems - violence, corruption, poverty and economic vulnerability - remain. Successfully addressing these challenges will be critical to Mexico's future as a democratic constitutional state and economic partner in the region.

Supplementary assessment from a Gradido perspective

It is clear on what many levels Mexico is deeply challenged. Here is a gradido perspective that looks at the transformative power of life with love, hope and confidence:

Gradido commentary on the current situation in Mexico - 2025

Challenges as an invitation to redesign

The massive structural problems - violence, poverty, corruption, growing inequality and extreme economic dependency - are dramatic. They cause suffering and social division. However, such complex crises are also an invitation to take completely new paths together: towards an economic and social system that is oriented towards the common good and promotes life.

What if no one had to be poor anymore?

With the introduction of the Natural Economy of Life according to the Gradido model, people's basic existential fears - hunger, poverty, migration without prospects - could be resolved peacefully. Every person would receive an unconditional contribution to life day after day:

• for themselves (active participation),
• the community,
• and for the healing of the environment and nature.

Healing from division and violence

Many of the causes of organized crime and everyday violence in Mexico are rooted in poverty, lack of opportunity and social inequality. Gradido would not only offer all people a stable livelihood, but also real development and life opportunities for disadvantaged groups (e.g. indigenous peoples, poor rural regions). This would also give young people prospects worth living for - without having to flee, face gang crime or exploitation.

Corruption and a new culture of trust

A transparent, decentralized gradido system geared towards the common good would eliminate many of the current incentives for corruption: Resources would no longer be distributed for a few elites, but for the benefit of all and in a comprehensible manner. With the "natural economy of life", manipulation and illegal enrichment would be much more difficult, and there would be far fewer incentives for them as everyone would be well off.

Economic resilience and independence

The local creative power of the Gradido can strengthen regional economic cycles independently of unstable export markets or foreign politics. The country could once again rely more on its own cultural, natural and social resources. Nearshoring opportunities would benefit everyone - not just global corporations.

The common good as a new guiding principle

Gradido would shift the focus from mere growth and markets to genuine quality of life, peace, participation and care. The gap between rich and poor begins to heal when everyone has access to basic security, education and health - and Mexico's unique cultural diversity is valued as a wealth for all.

Bright spot & vision

Especially in dark times, we need the courage to think and live new ways together. Mexico could - if society wants it - become a pioneer of peaceful, solidary and sustainable transformation. The challenges are enormous - but they hold the greatest potential to trust life and love and to bring to light what is possible in the human family.