Independent of oil with the help of Gradido

How humanity can use the current oil crisis as a wake-up call - and how Gradido can support change

The text reflects the research and analysis results of the AI application „Perplexity“ and does not represent an expression of opinion by Gradido. It serves as information and as an impulse for further discussion.

Summary

In spring 2026, the Iran war triggered a global oil supply crisis that made civilization's structural dependence on fossil fuels painfully visible. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which around 20 percent of the world's oil was previously transported every day, caused crude oil prices to climb to over USD 100 per barrel. The head of the IEA, Fatih Birol, spoke of the „worst energy crisis in decades“ and a „major threat“ to the global economy. The EU advisors also warned that fertilizer prices would also rise in the medium term, as nitrogen fertilizers such as ammonia and urea are mainly produced from natural gas - which in turn makes food more expensive.

This report analyzes how humanity can systemically break this dependency - and how the Gradido model as an economic operating system promotes and accelerates the necessary transformation.

1 The 2026 oil crisis: Symptom of a systemic dependency

1.1 Extent of the crisis

Since the outbreak of the Iran war, the strategically important Strait of Hormuz has been de facto blocked. Iran has banned ships from passing through; as a result, most tanker owners, oil companies and trading houses have suspended their deliveries. Around 17-20 million barrels of crude oil are normally transported through this strait every day. In March 2026, the IEA released its largest strategic oil reserve in the organization's history: 426 million barrels, after the price briefly rose to USD 120 per barrel. Analysts even see oil prices of 150 dollars as possible in a prolonged conflict.

For Europe, the war is having a dangerous double effect: not only is fuel becoming more expensive, but also nitrogen fertilizers for agriculture, as these are produced from natural gas. The economic advisors of the German Federal Ministry of Economics wrote in a brief report: „Nitrogen fertilizers such as ammonia and urea are mainly produced from natural gas“ - a direct link between the oil crisis and food prices.

1.2 The root cause: growth compulsion and fossil dependency

The prevailing financial and economic system forces permanent growth in order to service the interest burden on debt. This growth requires exponentially growing energy consumption - over 80 percent of which is covered by fossil fuels. The crisis is no coincidence, but a structural consequence of a system built on endless expansion, while the earth's resources are finite.

The Iran war is only the most recent cause. The structural causes will remain as long as the monetary system produces growth compulsion, agriculture is dependent on energy-intensive artificial fertilizers, plastics are produced almost exclusively on a petroleum basis and transport and industry remain dependent on fossil fuels.

2. degrowth and post-growth: less industry needs less energy

2.1 Basic principle

Degrowth (post-growth) assumes that a reduction in production and consumption in the highly developed economies of the Global North is necessary in order to comply with planetary boundaries. This is not about economic shrinkage as an end in itself, but about decoupling quality of life from material and economic prosperity.

Fossil fuels still account for around 81 percent of global primary energy consumption. According to a degrowth study, a consistent post-growth strategy could reduce global energy demand to the level of the 1960s by 2050, despite the world's population tripling. According to estimates, sufficiency policies alone could save 21-29 percent of energy without causing a loss of prosperity.

2.2 Criticism and reality check

Critics point out that economic contraction would most likely lead to massive distributional conflicts and make the necessary investments in the energy transition more difficult. The challenge is therefore to design a transition that is socially just and finances the necessary transformation - without creating new debt and without burdening the poorest. This is precisely where Gradido comes in.

2.3 Gradido's contribution: Eliminating the growth constraint

The Gradido model eliminates the systemic foundation of the growth imperative: the debt money system with interest and compound interest. Debt-free money creation for everyone eliminates the need to permanently expand the economy in order to service interest. This creates the economic basis for a post-growth society without jeopardizing social peace - because the Active Basic Income of 1,000 GDD per person secures the existence of everyone.

3. permaculture: agriculture without oil and gas

3.1 The fossil dependency of agriculture

Industrial agriculture is doubly dependent on fossil fuels: Firstly, EU agriculture consumes around 1,431 petajoules of energy per year - equivalent to 3.7 percent of the EU's total energy consumption. Secondly, the Haber-Bosch process for the production of nitrogen fertilizer is dependent on natural gas: It consumes about two percent of global energy and produces one percent of global CO₂ emissions. One permaculture pioneer put it in a nutshell: „Our way of producing food consumes ten times as many calories as it contains“.

3.2 Scientific evidence for permaculture

A comprehensive study by the Rhineland-Palatinate University of Technology Kaiserslautern-Landau (RPTU) and the University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences Vienna has shown for the first time on a large scale that permaculture has clear benefits for biodiversity, soil quality and carbon storage. No mineral fertilizers or pesticides are used on permaculture areas; the keeping of livestock is integrated into the cultivation of crops. The results of the study:

Without artificial fertilizers and machinery, permaculture can produce three to four times more plant food per square metre than conventional agriculture.

3.3 Gradido's contribution: Systemically financing permaculture

The Gradido model promotes permaculture on three levels:

Active basic income : Farmers who convert to permaculture receive existential security during the complex conversion phase. Permaculture experts can pass on their knowledge and be paid for it.

Equalization and Environmental Fund (AUF): In addition, the AUF finances the conversion of farms to organic methods. If introduced worldwide, 8 trillion GDD would be available for environmental projects every month - the largest environmental pot in the history of mankind.

Solidarity-based agriculture: Permaculture can already be integrated into community models through community-supported agriculture (SoLaWi) - with secure financing for farmers and fresh produce for members. Gradido also supports this through the Active Basic Income and the AUF.

4. replacement for petroleum-based plastics

4.1 The extent of the problem

Plastics are mainly made from crude oil and are present in almost all areas of modern life. 80 percent of marine litter consists of plastic; microplastics are found in humans, animals and the entire food chain.

4.2 Available alternatives

Researchers are increasingly developing practicable alternatives:

• Bioplastics from garden waste: At the Carl von Ossietzky University of Oldenburg, a polybutylene succinate (PBS) is produced entirely from organic waste such as grass clippings, hay and algae. The material is stable, malleable and recyclable.

• Fungi and algae: Mycelium networks of fungi can be processed into stable foams and packaging; algae also provide bio-based plastics.

• Biodegradable plastics for agriculture: Certified bioplastics such as the Bio-Flex® N series degrade completely into CO₂, water and biomass without leaving behind microplastics.

• Thermoplastic starch, cellulose and PLA: Biodegradable plastics made from starch- and cellulose-rich plants such as maize or miscanthus offer further alternatives.

4.3 Gradido's contribution

The compensation and environmental fund can support companies in switching to ecological products and materials. By eliminating tax burdens, companies that invest in sustainable material development are significantly relieved. The Gradido model structurally promotes the circular economy, as the perishable nature of money penalizes hoarding and rewards circulation and use - which counteracts planned obsolescence and overproduction.

5 Alternative energies: The way out of fossil dependency

5.1 Current status in Germany

Germany made considerable progress with renewable energies in 2025: The share of renewable energy in total electricity generation reached 58.6 percent. Solar energy increased its production by 17.4% to a new record and overtook lignite for the first time. For the first time, wind and solar formed a „double lead“ in German electricity generation. At the same time, interest in decentralized energy self-sufficiency is growing: household storage systems (partly from recycled batteries) combined with solar panels enable independent power generation for a large part of the year.

5.2 The Iran war as an accelerator

The war against Iran - as terrible as it is - is acting as a catalyst for green technologies. Europeans are increasingly turning to solar, heat pumps and electric cars; politicians and companies are feverishly searching for more stable alternatives to oil and gas. A barrel of Brent crude already cost 116 dollars at the end of March 2026 - price levels that make renewable energies even more economically attractive.

5.3 Gradido's contribution: Massive financing of the energy transition

The existing financing model for the energy transition often fails due to the lack of availability of public funds. The Gradido Equalization and Environmental Fund provides a structural solution to this problem:

• It finances the expansion of decentralized solar and wind power plants without new debt

• It enables the renovation of buildings for better energy efficiency

• It finances the construction of local energy storage facilities and community projects

• It promotes the research and development of other forms of energy that have not yet been utilized

• It makes clean energy accessible even in remote regions - immediately, even where people are poor

6 The Gradido model: The systemic solution

6.1 Basic principles

Gradido is a monetary and economic system based on the model of nature, which has been developed at the Gradido Academy for Economic Bionics for over 20 years. It follows the cycle of growth and decay - the law of nature that has produced a diversity of life and balance for billions of years.

The name stands for Gratitude (gratitude), Tuegnity (dignity) and Donation (gift). The ethical foundation is the „threefold good“ - of the individual, the community and the greater whole.

6.2 The threefold creation of money

In contrast to the debt money system, where all assets are also debts, Gradido creates money for everyone as assets without creating debts. Each person receives 3,000 GDD per month - divided into three pillars:

When introduced worldwide for 8 billion people, the AUF results in the following per month 8 trillion GDD - yearly 96 trillion GDD for environmental and transformation projects. This is the largest environmental pot in the history of mankind.

6.3 Transience: the key to stability

To prevent inflation, the Gradido is subject to a planned perishability of 50 percent per year (approx. 5.6 percent per month). Similar to a negative interest rate, the perishability is continuously deducted from the account balance. This self-regulating system keeps the money supply stable and prevents the accumulation of huge fortunes. Transience punishes hoarding and rewards circulation - analogous to a healthy cycle in nature.

6.4 Active basic income: A secure income as a foundation

The „Active Basic Income“ combines the arguments of opponents and supporters of the unconditional basic income. Those who wish to take advantage of it contribute their talents and inclinations to the community in return - for a maximum of 50 hours per month, at their own discretion. The average hourly wage is 20 GDD, so that 1,000 GDD can be earned each month. Anyone who is unable to contribute for health or age reasons receives the basic income unconditionally.

This enables:

• farmers to switch to permaculture without existential fears

• Craftsmen the development of a regional circular economy

• Communities the development of local energy supply

• innovators to develop plastic alternatives without profit pressure

6.5 The Equalization and Environmental Fund (AUF)

The AUF is the third pillar of Gradido's money creation and the most important tool for financing change:

• Financing nature conservation and environmental protection measures without debt

• Support for companies switching to organic products

• Financing the global energy transition

• Restoration of already damaged ecosystems

• Enabling access to clean water worldwide

„The measures financed by the environmental fund enable all people worldwide to have access to clean water and a healthy environment“. The necessary amount of money is created without incurring debt.

7. quantification: 65-80% Energy reduction possible

7.1 The systemic savings potential

According to estimates based on scientific studies, the gradido model combined with permaculture could save 65-80 percent of global energy consumption:

7.2 The paradise principle

Empirical data shows that natural lifestyles can actually be more energy efficient and of higher quality: Indigenous communities with traditional lifestyles consume 20-40 GJ per capita per year - compared to 150 GJ for Germans and 300 GJ for Americans. This corresponds to 75-90 percent less energy consumption - with a subjectively high quality of life.

The Gradido model estimates that a „paradisiacal life“ for all people would be possible with 20-35 percent of today's energy consumption - using modern permaculture, decentralized energy and AI as an optimization tool.

8 The transformation chain: from health to peace

8.1 Healthier food, healthier people

According to studies, permaculture products contain 27 percent more vitamin C, 21 percent more iron and 29 percent more magnesium, as well as 48 percent less cadmium and 50 percent more omega-3 fatty acids in organic meat and milk compared to conventionally produced foods. This reduces medical costs and relieves the burden on healthcare systems.

8.2 Happiness, less consumption, more peace

The 85-year-old Harvard Grant Study shows that warm, positive relationships are the most important factor for happiness and longevity - far more important than wealth. The Gradido model creates wealth of time instead of wealth of goods and enables community orientation instead of materialism. Less compensatory consumption means less energy consumption and less need for raw materials.

Happy people fight less for resources. The elimination of existential fear through the Active Basic Income thus eliminates structural causes of crime and conflict. The Gradido vision is based on the plus-sum principle of nature: cooperation is rewarded, competition loses its drive.

8.3 Prosperity and demographic transition

According to the well-documented demographic transition, global prosperity through per capita money creation and access to education for all leads to a natural decline in birth rates to a sustainable level - without coercive measures.

9. implementation: The way from here to there

9.1 Starting Gradido as a complementary currency

Gradido can be introduced anywhere - in communities, individual countries or worldwide. It can be introduced in stages in parallel with the old system, enabling a peaceful transformation without losers. Gradido can already be used today as remuneration for the common good for voluntary work and neighborhood assistance.

Vision 2050 envisages a pioneering phase from 2028, starting with one or more countries proving the concept - with the aim of covering 2.5 billion people and 32 percent of the global economy by 2032.

9.2 Strategic acupuncture: The first hero

Instead of addressing all nations at the same time, an „acupuncture strategy“ may be more effective - focusing on crisis countries and courageous pioneering politicians. Gradido solves specific bottlenecks: crisis countries with collapsed financial systems, countries with structural poverty, regions with acute environmental degradation. If a country is successful, „the ambassadors come to you, not the other way around“.

9.3 Decentralized energy as an accompaniment

The Gradido community is already cooperating with initiatives for decentralized energy self-sufficiency - such as the Plasmatec Research Institute, which offers workshops on building your own home storage units from recycled batteries. Solar panels combined with decentralized storage systems enable energy self-sufficient households for a large part of the year.

10. transforming the earth back into a paradise

10.1 What paradise means in concrete terms

The Gradido model does not see a „paradise on earth“ as a utopia, but as a scientifically sound roadmap:

• Healthy food from permaculture for all

• Existential security through the Active Basic Income

• Clean energy through decentralized renewable sources

• Intact nature by the Equalization and Environmental Fund

• Meaningful work according to your own inclinations and talents

• Strong communities instead of isolation and competition

• Global peace through a sum-of-plenty game instead of resource wars

The Gradido blog sums it up: „The Gradido model offers the systemic key to saving 65-80% of global energy consumption while improving the quality of life for all.“

10.2 The meta-knowledge

All of humanity's major challenges - poverty, disease, environmental destruction, wars, overpopulation - are not isolated, but are symptoms of a dysfunctional monetary system. By switching to a life-enhancing system, the problems are not only solved individually, but in synergy: health improves → costs fall → more resources for education → birth rates normalize → less pressure on resources → more prosperity for all. A positive upward spiral instead of a destructive vicious circle.

The vision is clear: „Global prosperity, peace and freedom for all people - in harmony with nature.“

Conclusion: The crisis as an opportunity

The Iran war and the associated oil emergency are a brutal wake-up call. They show how vulnerable a civilization is that has built its livelihood on non-renewable, geopolitically controlled resources. At the same time, they offer a historic opportunity: the world is now ready for a system that structurally rewards energy conservation, promotes alternatives and finances transformation.

Gradido provides the economic operating system for this transformation:

• The Active Basic Income gives people the security to make the change

• The tax-free state budget enables investment in infrastructure without new debt

• The Equalization and Environment Fund finances the energy transition, permaculture and plastic alternatives on a scale that was previously unthinkable

Humanity has the knowledge, the technology and now - with Gradido - also the economic model. What remains is the collective will to implement it