The end of unemployment, undeclared work and skills shortages

Executive Summary

The Gradido model of the Gradido Academy for Economic Bionics claims to structurally solve three of the most pressing labor market problems of the modern world: Unemployment, undeclared work and skills shortages. This analysis examines the theoretical architecture of these claims, compares them with the empirical state of research and critically evaluates where the arguments are convincing and where they are incomplete. The result: Gradido contains systemically interesting approaches, some of which are supported by current basic income studies, but key implementation issues remain unresolved.

I. The Gradido model - basic principles

Before analyzing the three specific promises, it is necessary to understand the basic architecture of Gradido. The system is based on three pillars, the so-called „Triple Money Creation“:

• 1,000 GDD per person per month as Active basic income (on the basis of unconditional participation)

• 1,000 GDD per person per month as State budget (incl. health and social services)

• 1,000 GDD per person per month for the Compensation and Environment Fund (AUF)

The money is created debt-free - in contrast to today's debt money system, where every credit is offset by a corresponding debt. A key feature is the planned Ephemerality50% of the balance expires annually, which stabilizes the money supply, prevents hoarding and promotes the velocity of circulation. Taxes and social security contributions become superfluous, as the state budget is covered directly by the second money creation.

II Full employment through the Active Basic Income

The gradido thesis

The Active Basic Income is based on the principle of „unconditional participation“: everyone has the right to receive up to 50 hours per month to contribute to the common good and 20 GDD per hour - so maximum 1,000 GDD per month - to receive. The Gradido Academy argues that this means that, by definition, unemployment no longer exists, as anyone who wants to can make a meaningful contribution.

The range of activities is deliberately broad: from social support and maintenance of public spaces and green areas to artistic performances, education, environmental protection and administrative activities. Anyone who is unable to contribute for health or age-related reasons receives the basic income unconditionally.

Current context: Unemployment in Germany

The relevance of this thesis is not abstract. In Germany, the Unemployment rate at around 6 percent in 2024 In September 2025, 2.955 million people were still registered as unemployed and the number of people in employment fell by 69,000 compared to the previous year. Demographic pressure and structural change threaten to further worsen the situation.

Empirical support: findings from basic income studies

One crucial question is: Would people stop working if they had a basic income? The First German long-term study on basic income (2021-2024), conducted by the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin), the Frankfurt School, the University of Vienna and the University of Oxford, provides revealing data:

• 122 people received monthly for 3 years 1,200 euros unconditionally

• Result: People do not stop working - the proportion of people in employment in the basic income group was „almost congruent“ with the control group

• Instead: More training, more job satisfaction, better mental health

• Participants used the basic income for professional reorientation and qualification, not for withdrawal

These results support the Gradido thesis that the basic income does not lead to a „social hammock“, but activates intrinsic motivation.

However, there are also critical findings: a US study (Stockton/Gainesville) showed that in a comparison group, work participation fell slightly (-2 percentage points) and the number of hours worked decreased. The results are not uniform internationally and depend heavily on cultural and structural conditions.

The conceptual strength of Gradido compared to the UBI

A key difference between the unconditional basic income (UBI) and the Gradido Active Basic Income lies in the Connection with public welfare contribution. Gradido combines the arguments of UBI supporters (securing livelihoods) and opponents (counter-performance). The principle of „unconditional participation“ - everyone may and is recognized for it - is psychologically powerful: it removes the meaninglessness and stigmatization currently associated with unemployment.

Gradido founder Bernd Hückstädt emphasizes that healthy people have a natural desire for growth and development and do not simply withdraw into a social void. The available research largely supports this assessment.

Critical assessment

The thesis „no more unemployment by definition“ is correct insofar as it Redefining the concept of full employment: Work for the common good is recognized as equivalent to gainful employment. This is a valuable conceptual break with today's narrow definition of work. Open questions remain, however:

III The end of undeclared work

The gradido thesis

The reasoning here is elegant and direct: since in the gradido system No taxes and no social security contributions the most important motive for undeclared work no longer applies. Gross = net. By definition, undeclared work is an attempt to avoid tax and duty obligations - if these obligations do not exist, there is no more undeclared work.

Current context: undeclared work as a growing problem

The figures clearly demonstrate the need for action:

• In 2024, at least 3.3 million people in Germany were working illegally - that is 5.4% of the population between the ages of 15 and 74

• The Shadow economy amounted to around 10% of GDP between 2014 and 2024

• For 2025, an increase to 511 billion euros forecast (+6.1%)

• For 2026, the value is set at 538 billion euros or 11.6% of GDP estimated - the highest level since 2014

The economists' diagnosis is particularly revealing: IW behavioral economist Dominik Enste stated: „Undeclared work is so attractive because employees are left with too little net from gross.“ New laws and controls would not reduce undeclared work - only a reduction in the tax and duty burden could do that.

This is remarkable: the diagnosis of mainstream economists coincides exactly with the Gradido solution approach. The Gradido principle of „gross = net“ thus eliminates structural the main incentive for undeclared work.

Analysis: Causes of undeclared work and gradido fit

The main causes of undeclared work can be divided into three categories, and Gradido addresses them all:

1. tax and duty burden:
Undeclared work is particularly profitable for high earners, as the savings from tax avoidance are the highest. The elimination of all taxes completely removes this incentive.

2. economic weakness and unemployment:
Poor economic conditions increase undeclared work because registered employment becomes less profitable. The Active Basic Income creates a solid livelihood regardless of the economic situation.

3. bureaucratic hurdles:
Those who shy away from bureaucracy prefer to work without an invoice. Gradido eliminates the entire tax and social security apparatus, including tax offices and auditing authorities.

The bureaucracy dimension: quantified savings

The Gradido report on bureaucracy reduction quantifies the structural gains:

• Germany's bureaucracy costs the economy up to 146 billion euros (ifo Institute)

• 19% of employees see no social benefit in their work (empirically confirmed by David Graeber's „Bullshit Jobs“ research)

• Round 40% of office employees feel their job is superfluous

• The elimination of the tax and social security apparatus creates Enormous energy-saving potential60-70% Reduction possible through bureaucracy reduction alone

David Graeber has described this social depletion of meaning through superfluous administrative work in detail in his work „Bullshit Jobs“. Gradido solves this problem not through moral appeals, but through systemic redesign: if no tax justification is necessary, thousands of job profiles that are currently used exclusively for tax administration will be eliminated.

Critical assessment

The undeclared work thesis is the logically strongest of the three gradido claims. The elimination of taxes and duties definitely removes the primary incentive to work illegally. However, it remains critical:

• Regular commercial enterprises would continue to charge prices in the Gradido system - but would the Active Basic Income be accepted as a currency by everyone? Currency acceptance is a key implementation issue.

• Undeclared work also has cultural and social dimensions that cannot be explained in purely economic terms.

IV. The solution to the skills shortage

The gradido thesis

Gradido argues that the shortage of skilled workers in the new system done by itself, because the economy is freed from the pressure to grow and can shrink without causing social hardship. When economic contraction no longer causes mass unemployment and existential fear, the shortage of skilled workers loses its systemic horror.

Current context: Skills shortage in Germany

The situation is serious and structural:

• The annual average for 2023/2024 was around 532,000 jobs unfilled, because no suitably qualified unemployed people were available

• Every second company in Germany cannot fill vacancies, at least in part

• The baby boomer cohorts are retiring, while significantly fewer young people are joining them

• The DIW estimates that the labor force potential by 300,000 people per year by 2029 goes back

• The shortage of skilled workers has become one of the biggest brakes on growth of the German economy

Analysis: How Gradido is tackling the skills shortage

Gradido addresses the problem of skilled workers on several levels:

Level 1 - Decoupling the need for growth from social well-being:

In today's system, economic contraction immediately generates unemployment and social hardship because work is the primary means of securing livelihoods. When companies produce less, they lay people off. In the Gradido system, livelihoods are secured by the Active Basic Income. Companies can healthy shrinkage - need fewer employees without triggering social disasters. The pressure to grow that forces companies to expand today (to pay off debts, to generate returns, to retain employees) no longer applies.

Level 2 - Activation of untapped talents:

The shortage of skilled workers has an often overlooked dimension: many qualified people are now employed in Bullshit Jobs These are activities that are of no benefit to society but are vital to our existence. In the Gradido system, these people could use their skills where there is a real need - in care, education, technology, environmental protection. Remuneration via the Active Basic Income or additional market work creates new freedoms for talent allocation.

Level 3 - Absorbing demographic change:

The first money creation for the Active Basic Income rewards activities that are currently unpaidChildcare, caring for the elderly, helping neighbors, care work. These activities are essential to the economy and are becoming increasingly important due to demographic change - but they do not appear as „work“ in official statistics today. Gradido enhances their structural value.

Level 4 - Meaningful work and motivation:

The study on Gradido from a Gradido perspective for Germany emphasizes that a shortage of skilled workers is also caused by the loss of attractiveness of professions and the growing frequency of burnout. When people work for the joy of creation rather than out of existential fear - as laid out in the Gradido basic principle - productivity and job satisfaction naturally increase.

The growth imperative: a systemic problem

Degrowth and post-growth research shares Gradido's diagnosis: the capitalist system has an inherent compulsion to grow, as it is rooted in production relations and the social structure. However, critics such as the Wirtschaftsdienst warn that shrinkage without safeguards would lead to massive distribution conflicts. This is precisely Gradido's answer: the Active Basic Income is the social security that makes degrowth socially acceptable in the first place.

Critical assessment

The skills shortage thesis is the most complex of the three claims. It is not as direct as the undeclared work solution, but works via several systemic levers. It remains critical:

• Highly specialized skills shortages (doctors, engineers, IT specialists) are not only caused by systemic incentives, but also by long training periods and complex knowledge that cannot be replaced by community service hours.

• The thesis assumes that the gradido system provides sufficient incentives for years of specialist training - an aspect that the gradido literature has so far only addressed indirectly (through additional market labor income over and above the basic income).

• The demographic change itself - fewer births - is not directly addressed by Gradido, but it is addressed by the family policy impetus of the Active Basic Income (parental work is rewarded).

V. Systemic cross-connections: How the three solutions reinforce each other

One aspect that is often overlooked is that the three gradido solutions are not independent of each other, but rather a coherent systemic whole form:

The threefold welfare principle - welfare of the individual, the community and the greater whole - ethically links all three dimensions. Tax exemption and the basic income are not separate measures, but manifestations of the same system logic.

The equalization and environmental fund as the third element

The AUF also creates millions of additional jobs for the common good in environmental restoration, renaturation and the protection of natural resources. This is another dimension of employment that is particularly relevant in the context of skills shortages and the search for meaning.

VI Critical overall assessment

Strengths of the Gradido approach

1. Consistent internal logicThe three solution promises consistently follow from the same basic principles.

2. Empirical supportCurrent basic income studies show that people with a basic income do not stop working, but develop better.

3. Diagnostic congruenceThe diagnosis of undeclared work is in line with mainstream economics - too little net from gross is the main driver.

4. Systemic thinkingGradido addresses causes, not symptoms.

5. Nature orientationThe perishability principle (50% decay/year) creates automatic money supply regulation without political intervention.

Challenges and unanswered questions

1. Lack of large-scale pilot projectsGradido is currently being tested primarily as a complementary currency and common good points system, not as a complete economic system. The step from local experiments to national implementation is immense.

2. Currency acceptanceFor a smooth transition, companies would have to accept GDD as a fully-fledged means of payment - a chicken-and-egg problem.

3. Transition problemHow can the existing debt and tax apparatus be reduced without triggering macroeconomic shocks?

4. Specialist training incentivesWhether the Active Basic Income (1,000 GDD/month base) provides sufficient incentive for multi-year specialist training is an open empirical question.

5. Political resistanceAs the strategic analysis shows, Gradido would cause massive losses of interest for the financial industry, tax authorities and certain political players.

Comparative table: Current system vs. gradido

VII Conclusion: Systemic vision with implementation issues still to be resolved

Gradido is not a mere monetary reform, but a Operating system change in the economy. The three core promises - an end to unemployment, undeclared work and a shortage of skilled workers - are not naïve utopias, but follow from a coherent internal system logic that is supported by parts of empirical research.

The logically strongest The thesis is the end of undeclared work: if there are no taxes, there is nothing to evade. German research confirms that the tax burden is the main driver.

The empirically most interesting The thesis is the end of unemployment: basic income studies show that people do not stop working - they seek meaning, not leisure. Gradido's combination of basic income with a contribution to the common good is the conceptually more convincing approach compared to a pure UBI.

The systemically most profound This thesis is the solution to the shortage of skilled workers: it presupposes that economic contraction is possible without social catastrophes - which is only the case if livelihood security is decoupled from gainful employment. This is exactly what the Active Basic Income does.

What remains are the questions of Transition and implementationHow a global, debt-based system can be transformed into a debt-free one, how currency acceptance can be created and how political resistance can be overcome is the real challenge - not the theoretical consistency of the model. This is remarkably high.

Note: Contributions from gradido.net and internal strategy analysis reflect the views and research findings of the Gradido Academy. External sources (ifo, DIW, IW Cologne, Destatis, bpb) serve to independently contextualize and verify the theses.